Oddly enough, that is a title before they revised it to “Despite strong economy, two-thirds of adults fear a recession could come next year, according to Invest In You survey”
As we have discussed in the past, surveys, like this one, are primarily a survey of the effectiveness of past propaganda messaging. Pundits have been telling us we would soon be in a recession – some even proclaiming we are already in a recession last summer. There is a large political component to this messaging:
However, according to the latest CNBC Invest in You survey, two-thirds of respondents think one is coming. Especially if they’re Democrats or younger people.
Nearly a third of Democrats said they are now worse off, compared with 10% of Republicans.
In general, Republicans have a rosier view of the economy: Just 23% said their finances are about the same as they were
Oddly, if so many are so worse off, its hard to explain that “consumer expenditure remains high”. Except that opinions, above, are likely the effects of party-specific propaganda messaging – and that almost no one practices factfulness to see what the data actually says.
People in online financial groups believe the media plays a part in recessions by stirring up fears and economic anxiety. The thinking is that news stories get people talking and then worrying about a recession, which in turn can spark a downturn.
This news report, astonishingly, is primarily about the impact that media propaganda messaging has on economic activity.
First, no one has ever demonstrated an ability to predict future recessions with any accuracy. Second, this does not stop pundits from telling us that one is coming – Real Soon Now! Third, those surveyed have not special skills in evaluating the claims and are largely responding to the onslaught of propaganda messaging.
In 2008, the economy not only crashed, we nearly lost the entire banking system. Yet then pundits were proclaiming “Dow 36,000!”