Stats compiled by Oxford University-backed research team Our World in Data shows there were a record 1,892 Covid cases per million people in Israel on Wednesday — nearly 0.2 per cent of the entire population in a single day.
Look closely at the Epicurve for Israel. The country went from very low levels to sky high – in one day. There is no biological explanation for that.
No one says anything publicly about the false positive rates of tests. A PCR test with a false positive rate of 0.3% sounds fantastic – until you work out the Bayesian probabilities. If the prevalence of a disease in the population is less than 0.3% and you test everyone, then the majority of your “positives” will be false positives.
Los Angeles County tried the screening test approach earlier in 2021; 100% of the positive test results turned out to be false positives.
Or before that “Seven in 10 positive Covid cases in school children likely to be wrong“.
I explained the false positive problem and Bayes Theorem in the spring of 2020. Read that.
The 0.2% calculation is bogus for the reasons outlined above and positive test cases will likely be low again the next few days.