First, they confirm several facts given in the social media post are true.
But then Snopes declares it false because the rise in cases, Snopes says, was “only” 6,200% instead of 16,700%.
This represented a rise over those months of 6,200%, not 16,700%. It’s unclear how the larger percentage was reached.
Perhaps more important is the fact that the tweet’s text included a percentage instead of the actual number of cases. This appeared to be an attempt to mislead. The figure 16,700% is far more dramatic than reporting a rise in the seven-day average case count, over the course of four months, from five cases to 315.
Their calculation of 6,200% appears correct but it depends on the input data – and which authoritative source was used for the data. Having collected Covid-19 data for 20 months, I have watched what I call “dueling experts” as data and claims made by authorities are frequently inconsistent, contradictory and incoherent. Depending on the source used by the social media post creator (perhaps using a daily minimum and maximum instead of the 7-day average), a rise of 16,700% may be correct too. But ignoring that, let’s go with the 6,200% increase. That is still a huge increase! And it is the magnitude of the increase that is primary message of the post!
Vermont is a conundrum: Vermont has the highest vaccination rate in the nation and as of today, Nov 12, according to CovidEstim.org, the highest case rate per 100K population at 388. The social media graphic that Snopes labels as False raises an important question – why is this happening in Vermont, the state that did absolutely everything right? Snopes manages to not notice any of this.
Snopes correctly quotes from a misleading CDC report to say that only 1.3% of cases have been in the vaccinated – since March 5, 2020. The CDC’s report cherry picks by starting the count back in 2020, long before vaccines were available to anyone. Not surprisingly, most “cases” since March 5th, 2020 occurred in the unvaccinated! Because vaccines were not available to most during two-thirds of this time period! In fact, by March 5, 2021, one year later, less than 10% of Vermont residents had been fully vaccinated! What a surprise that most “cases” occurred in the unvaccinated!
Why does the CDC calculate breakthrough cases by going back to March 5th, 2020? Can only speculate that the CDC wants to make vaccines look more effective than they are, to encourage vaccine uptake. The period when people were not vaccinated should absolutely positively never be used to calculate breakthrough cases for utterly obvious reasons. The CDC is either incompetent or willfully attempting to mislead the public – there is no other possible conclusion.
As you can see, most “cases” in the vaxxed occurred since August of 2021. The correct comparison to determine a percentage of break thru cases is to compare case counts of the vaccinated to the unvaccinated for the past 4 weeks only. This presents a true picture of the break thru percentage.
Snopes is a famous “fact checking” web site whose co-founder was found to have extensively plagiarized from others and wrote many fake articles for Snopes. The co-founder still works for Snopes.
The social media post was at least “mostly true” but Snopes rated it False.
We rate Snopes “Fact check” of the social media post: FALSE
Snopes would be wise to run a fact check on the CDC report cited above to understand why the CDC report is government sanctioned disinformation.