In a letter in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the authors write that many scientists are focusing way too much of the worst-case scenarios of climate change and environmental shifts all around the globe. While the team notes that these problems are real, constantly preaching impending doom is counter-productive and overshadows the more likely outcomes of global warming. These more-likely outcomes fall into the middle of the climate change conversation — not good, but also not extremely bad.

Source: Yes, climate change is bad — but scientists must ‘chill’ when it comes to doomsday scenarios, experts say

When many aspects of a future are unknowable and not predictable, modelers select “scenarios” and model what might occur around each scenario. In the case of climate, the most extreme scenario is RCP 8.5 – which many scientists say is not physically possible in the real world. This scenario produces the scariest results for climate and is the one that the media amplies the loudest.

This led to 40% of young adults suffering significant (and unwarranted) anxiety about the end of the world.

Image from Climate Nexus.

Related – in the late 1960s, overpopulation leading to the end of humanity on earth was the focus of conventional wisdom, the media, pundits, science and politicians. In reality, the U.S. fertility rate turned below the replacement level of 2.1 by 1972 and has remained below that level for most years since then. The global fertility rate has fallen to about 2.3 and is continuing to drop. A small number of countries, mostly in Africa, continue with high rates but these too may fall faster than modeled because everywhere women’s education has increased, and economies have improved, the fertility rate has plummeted.

Errant conclusions are reached when we focus on odd, extreme worst-case scenarios that are unlikely, rather than the most likely outcomes.

• I have an entire series on population demographics on my other blog.
• By about 2100, Europe’s population may shrink to where it was in the early 20th century.
• This is occurring globally – fertility rates are dropping rapidly nearly everywhere.

Surprisingly, the UN has a low model forecast for population dropping below total earth population of less than 3 billion between 2200 and 2300; today it’s about 8 billion.

The post WW 2 spike was a bizarre anomaly that has self-corrected. This chart blew my mind – it is completely opposite to the messaging I’ve gotten for decades. The U.S. population increased among a declining birth rate due to longer life spans and immigration.

More charts here.

For 50 years, we have been inundated with false messages about global population trends.

This was a revelation for me – I see a similar path playing out in climate communications, literally disinformation to get the public to adopt someone’s agenda. The collateral damage is widespread anxiety to the point of dysfunctional behavior (think of Extinction Rebellion or Just Stop Oil) and the widespread fear among children and young adults.

As someone diagnosed and treated for Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) (related to past brain injuries, in my case), I know anxiety comes from “catastrophizing” everything we encounter – turning what is a likely modest outcome into a full-blown catastrophe in our minds. We then have a strong anxiety response to our imagined outcome, even though the outcome is unlikely.

Climate communications is going down the same disinformation path as did global population projections.

This does not mean that climate change issues are not genuine – it means, though, that our focus on unlikely scenarios may cause us to choose actions that have more harm than benefits. Like with population, we are better off getting this right – than taking random actions.